Science fiction writers make predictions. I'm going to make one right now. Actually, I've been thinking about this, for a while, but this article from a UK blog reminded me.
Right now, people buy an e-reader for about 100 to 200 bucks. Or they buy a tablet or smartphone and put the app on it.
The Kindle and Nook apps for smartphones are free. Why? Because they want people to buy content.
So, here is my prediction:
Within 5 years, people will not buy e-readers. E-readers will be so cheap that they will be routinely given away by content distributors.
The first company to make this move will be Amazon, which will start offering a free e-reader with a two year commitment to its Prime service, which now includes a 'Netflix for books' style lending library. Said free e-reader will most likely be the e-Ink reader currently priced at $79 or its next model replacement.
I predict this move will occur in time for Christmas 2012 (if not sooner).
Thoughts?
I can see it coming faster than that, and possibly through a third party, rather than Amazon, although I agree that Amazon is the most likely. Barnes & Noble, if they want to keep up with Amazon, may be first to the punch. I'd offer something along the lines of a book club membership if I were them - join our book club, you get a Nook and can read in any of our stores.
ReplyDeleteWhat's probably delaying things with Amazon is that they couldn't get ANY major publishers to sign up for Select (the lending library). Basically, they have ended up signing a lot of small press and self publishers, which is probably not going to get the kind of interest they were hoping.
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