Sigh...space rocks

So, are we all going to die? The alarmist headlines are back.

The latest ones talk about a rock named 2009JF1, which according to the alarmists has a 1 in 3,800 chance of hitting Earth on May 6, 2022.

So, should we all be preparing for the worst?

According to both NASA and ESA, 2009JF1 does indeed show a close approach risk on that day.

But! The alarmists are saying this rock has a 420 ft diameter.

Nope.

It has a 43 ft diameter. Still bad, yes, but it makes me skeptical about whatever else they have to say.

(I'm also seeing 52 ft, so we're probably not 100% sure on the exact size, but it's def. not 420 ft!)

So, what would actually happen if 2009JF1 hit us?

Let's assume 50 ft as a reasonable size for this beastie.

Let's make the reasonable assumption it's dense rock, being a rogue asteroid.

Let's assume a typical impact speed.

2009JF1 hits us.

It breaks up in the upper atmosphere into lots of tiny fragments. Unless one lands on your head, you'll be fine. And if you're directly under it and standing near a window, you might be in trouble (Pro tip: See a fireball, get away from windows).

We already know what an impact of this size does if it "hits" a city. It's called Chelyabinsk.

In other words, somebody added a 0 to the size of an asteroid and panicked and now it's spreading.

(Out of interest, what would happen if it was 420 ft? I ran that too. Nice big crater, and you wouldn't want to be under it, but not by any means a planet killer).

Sigh.

Look, I get it. We need planetary defense. But inaccurate alarmism is not how we get it.